Trump’s Ukraine strategy may inadvertently bolster China’s global influence, as his outreach to Russia could shift geopolitical dynamics and create openings for Beijing on the world stage. This situation raises concerns about the long-term implications for U.S. foreign policy and international alliances.
Kissinger’s Legacy: A Historical Parallel
“In the end, peace can be achieved only by hegemony or by balance of power.” — Henry Kissinger
In 1971, U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger famously faked an illness during his visit to Pakistan to fly undercover to Beijing. This secret mission laid the groundwork for President Richard Nixon’s groundbreaking trip to China the following year, a pivotal moment known as “Kissinger’s rapprochement.” The U.S. strategy at the time aimed to gain leverage over its primary adversary, the Soviet Union, by creating a rift between the two communist powers. Rooted in realpolitik rather than ideology, Kissinger and Nixon believed that improving relations with Beijing would pressure Moscow to seek better ties. Fast forward 50 years, and the dynamics have shifted: Russia is now the weak link in this triangle, while China has emerged as the new Enemy Number One for the U.S.
Trump’s Outreach to Russia: A Modern Rapprochement?
Is Donald Trump’s recent outreach to Vladimir Putin regarding the war in Ukraine reminiscent of the 1972 rapprochement? In a series of rapid announcements, Trump has disrupted the existing global order, as officials from Washington and Moscow met in Riyadh to discuss a peace deal without the presence of Ukraine or Europe. Trump has controversially labeled Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a “dictator,” contrasting sharply with President Joe Biden’s characterization of Putin as a “murderous dictator.” Meanwhile, the transatlantic alliance appears to be crumbling, with European leaders fearing a repeat of the 1938 appeasement of Nazi Germany. Led by French President Macron, they convened an emergency meeting to strategize their security in the event of a U.S. withdrawal from Ukraine.
Risks of Alienation and the Rise of China
What, then, is Trump’s ultimate goal in mending ties with Russia while undermining long-standing military alliances in Europe? It would be overly simplistic to attribute his actions solely to an affinity for Putin or a vendetta against Zelenskyy. Instead, it seems Trump believes he can collaborate with the Kremlin to isolate China and curb its expanding global influence. However, courting Putin may inadvertently provide China with an opportunity to expand its reach, particularly in post-war Ukraine’s reconstruction.
China and Russia have forged deep economic and strategic ties, united in their efforts to challenge the dominance of the U.S. dollar and the post-World War II international order. Trump’s approach risks backfiring, as it could bolster Beijing’s global position rather than contain it. Unlike Kissinger’s strategic success, which established formal U.S.-China ties in 1979 and forced the Soviet Union to contend with two rivals, Washington’s current strategy may inadvertently empower China, allowing it to fill vacuums left by U.S. withdrawal from international institutions and expand its influence in regions like West Asia.
